Ceasefires: Declarations of Intent

Declarations of Intent​

Katie Hetherington: Hello and welcome to this session on declarations of intent. My name is Katie Hetherington and I'm a program manager at the Public International Law and Policy Group. In this session I'm very pleased to welcome both Professor Milena Sterio, Managing Director of PILPG, and Dr Gregory Noone, Executive Director of PILPG, and both international law professors.

Today we'll be focusing on declarations of intent, and it's great to be joined by you both. 

Prof. Milena Sterio: It's such a pleasure to be here, Katie. 

Dr. Greg Noone: Thank you for having us, Katie. 

What is a declaration of intent?

Katie Hetherington: So, to begin today's session, Greg, can you tell us what is a declaration of intent? 

Dr. Greg Noone: Sure. A declaration of intent is a statement released by one or more conflict parties that sets out their desire to move towards a ceasefire and some of the general principles that they would like to underpin the said future ceasefire agreement.

So, a declaration of intent does not include any formal obligation to stop violence or any specific agreement on how this Ceasefire would be designed or implemented. These details come later in the process, but the Declaration of Intent instead is a possible initial starting point for the ceasefire process upon which the future agreements can be built.

So, for example, in the North South Sudan process, the Machakos Protocol contained the key aspirations of the conflict parties and set out the basic principles for the future ceasefire and political negotiations. 

Where does a declaration of intent fit in the peace process?

Katie Hetherington: And Milena, where exactly does a declaration of intent fit within the wider peace process? 

Prof. Milena Sterio: A declaration of intent is oftentimes a common first step in a ceasefire process. A joint declaration demonstrates that conflict parties want to communicate and that they have reached a place in which they recognize the utility of a ceasefire and also the general principles guiding what should be included in an agreement.

This is a significant development and an important communication from the conflict parties. A declaration of intent, however, does not stop the violence, but it indicates a willingness to start negotiations on this topic. This normally takes place in the pre negotiation phase and seeks to create the conditions for subsequent negotiations to occur.

For example, a leader might share their declaration of intent to demonstrate that they're willing to move towards peace or to signal to their constituents that negotiations are imminent. 

Dr. Greg Noone: It's worth noting that not all ceasefire processes begin with the declaration of intent. In some cases, the parties find it beneficial to negotiate confidentially or de-escalate violence unofficially, whereas in other cases, parties might agree to a truce or similar arrangement to signal their intent.

But, a declaration of intent is often an important signal that parties are moving from limited arrangements, not directly connected to a peace process, to a more formal ceasefire process that ultimately seeks to stop the conflict. So, mediators, security advisors, and other technical experts may be involved in the negotiation of the declaration of intent. This is not always the case, and sometimes one or both parties may take this step without any external involvement at all. But again, a lot of what we're looking at in ceasefires is signaling to the world, signaling to the constituents, and signaling to the other side of where you'd like to go and where you want to end up.

What are the functions of a declaration of intent?

Katie Hetherington: Thank you so much both. So we've briefly touched upon the function of a declaration of intent as you both said, an effective signal of a party's intention to move towards a ceasefire. Milena, could you elaborate further on the functions of a declaration of intent? 

Prof. Milena Sterio: A declaration of intent also provides a useful opportunity for conflict parties to assess the intention of their opponent.

A joint declaration of intent may be an initial signal that the conflict parties are really serious about trying to work together and that they have agreed on broad principles according to which a ceasefire could be designed. This provides broad guidelines for any future negotiations of the more specific issues that are going to be covered in a ceasefire agreement.

Of course, commitment is much better demonstrated through actions than words, as we all know, but the impact on the conflict dynamics can be either significant or minimal, depending on the context. But I would say that the signing of a declaration of intent is always an important starting point as it may signal the conflict parties intent to actually negotiate and it can be a starting point that can lead towards a future peace agreement or a future ceasefire. 

What are the opportunities and challenges of a declaration of intent?

Katie Hetherington: Now, Greg, I assume that there are a number of opportunities as well as a number of challenges associated with a declaration of intent. Could you elaborate on some of these? 

Dr. Greg Noone: Yeah, let's start with the opportunities presented by declaration of intent. It provides an opportunity for the parties to demonstrate a low cost form of commitment. And what do we mean by low cost form? It’s that you are essentially just putting out your aspirations and what you want to do.

You're not actually stopping the fighting. You're not actually stopping the conflict, but you're signaling to everyone that you want to stop the conflict. So, in a process in which the parties are unwilling to consider more costly forms of cooperation and trust remains low, this is a small step towards a broader goal of a ceasefire, and if successful, it can provide a framework and some momentum to move the parties towards peace.

Prof. Milena Sterio: Katie, let me add to this by briefly describing some of the challenges associated with declarations of intent. It is possible that conflict parties may use such declarations to pretend that they had a peaceful intent when in reality they have no actual intention to move towards a ceasefire.

So, for example, a conflict party may seek to signal some peaceful intention to reduce international pressure or to mislead their opponent. As another example, by calling for a ceasefire when they don't have the intention to follow through or when they know very well that their opponent will not agree to it.

It is therefore always important to keep in mind that a declaration of intent is not binding, that it does not halt the fighting, and that it is not a guarantee of any subsequent progress in the peace process. It is also possible the conflict parties choose to skip this step altogether and move towards negotiating a ceasefire without ever making a prior declaration of intent.

Nevertheless, in complex and challenging environments, in many cases the declaration of intent will represent an important first step on the path towards ending violence. 

Katie Hetherington: Great. Now, this brings us to the end of our discussion on declarations of intent. Thank you so much, Professor Sterio and Dr. Noone, and thank you to all of those watching. ​