PILPG Ukraine Drafting Notes: Compliance and Monitoring

Compliance and Monitoring

Ensuring compliance with the terms of a peace agreement will be critical to maintaining long-term stability in Ukraine.  The issues that could arise in negotiations regarding compliance and monitoring are:

• Mechanisms for Monitoring Compliance:  Determining which organizations, mechanisms, or entities will be responsible for verifying the terms of the peace agreement and ensuring that all parties adhere to the provisions outlined in the agreement.

• Enforcement of Compliance:  Determining how breaches of the agreement will be handled and what consequences or penalties will be applied for violations of the terms.

• Dispute Resolution:  Establishing a process for resolving conflicts that arise over the interpretation of the agreement or accusations of violations.

Mechanisms for Monitoring Compliance

Monitoring mechanisms are necessary to ensure that all parties adhere to the agreed-upon terms and that violations are detected and addressed.

• International Monitoring by OSCE or United Nations:  International organizations, such as the OSCE or the United Nations, could take on the responsibility of overseeing compliance.  These organizations have the experience and infrastructure to monitor peace agreements effectively.   Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these organizations may be compromised if access to sensitive regions is restricted or denied, undermining their ability to monitor compliance fully.

• Regional actors:  Regional actors, such as neighboring states or the European Union, could play a role in monitoring compliance.  These entities may have a deeper understanding of the local context and could be more accessible and willing to engage.  However, regional actor’s own internal political dynamics may create a hurdle for deploying an effective mechanism.  Additionally, the regional actors would have to be capable of credibly monitoring and deterring any violations of the ceasefire. 

• Hybrid Monitoring Mechanism:  A hybrid model, combining local representatives with neutral third-party observers, could offer a more inclusive and balanced approach to monitoring compliance.  This model could foster a sense of joint responsibility while ensuring impartiality.  However, if the hybrid team is perceived as biased or if the roles of local and international members are unclear, the monitoring process could be undermined.

• Peacekeeping Forces for Demilitarized Zones (DMZs):  A peacekeeping force could be deployed to monitor demilitarized zones (DMZs) or other sensitive areas to ensure military forces do not violate the peace agreement by re-entering these regions.  However, peacekeepers would require the consent of all parties, which may not be forthcoming.  

Enforcement of Compliance

Clear mechanisms for enforcement will help ensure that violations are swiftly addressed to prevent escalation.

• Internationally Backed Sanctions or Penalties:  If one side fails to comply with the peace agreement, international sanctions or penalties could be imposed to encourage compliance.  These could take the form of economic restrictions, diplomatic isolation, or other measures.  But, while sanctions can in certain circumstances serve as a deterrent, they are not always effective. 

• Diplomatic or Military Responses:  In extreme cases, diplomatic pressure or even military responses may be used to enforce compliance with the peace agreement.  This could include the mobilization of peacekeepers or diplomatic isolation.  Nonetheless, military or diplomatic interventions are high-risk options that could escalate tensions and lead to a breakdown of the entire process.

Dispute Resolution

Disputes over the interpretation of the peace agreement or allegations of violations could arise.  A structured dispute resolution process is necessary to address conflicts in a fair and impartial manner.

• Independent Arbitration:  An independent mechanism could be created to resolve disputes over the peace agreement, providing binding decisions on disagreements regarding the implementation or interpretation of the terms.  Nonetheless, the effectiveness of arbitration depends on the ability of the parties to respect and enforce the decisions.

• Mediation by a Third Party:  A neutral third-party mediator could facilitate discussions between Ukraine and Russia to resolve conflicts as they arise, offering a flexible approach to dispute resolution.  However, the success of mediation depends heavily on the mediator’s credibility.  Additionally, mediation lacks enforcement power, and without a clear mechanism for implementation, agreed-upon resolutions may not be followed through.