PILPG Ukraine Drafting Notes: Food Security

Food Security

During peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, several food security issues could emerge that both parties would need to address. These might include:

• Grain Exports and Blockades:  Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters of grain, particularly wheat and corn.  The ongoing war has disrupted these exports, leading to food shortages in several regions around the world.  A peace agreement would likely need to address the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through key ports like Odesa and other trade routes.  

• Rebuilding Agricultural Infrastructure:  The war has caused significant damage to Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure, such as silos, irrigation systems, and transportation networks.  Discussions could include who would bear the costs of rebuilding and how international assistance might be involved.

• Protection of Agricultural Land and Resources:  A peace agreement could include provisions to safeguard agricultural land from further military activity, including the establishment of demilitarized zones and protections against expropriation.

Grain Exports and Blockades

• Establishing a Multinational Monitoring Force for Safe Passage:  An international peacekeeping or monitoring force, potentially led by the UN, EU, or another neutral body, could be deployed to oversee and ensure the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through key ports like Odesa, as well as other vital trade routes.  The main risk associated with such an approach relates to the possibility of a major escalation should security incidents occur and third states become parties to the armed conflict.  

• Bilateral Agreements for Grain Export Routes:  Similarly to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, grain export processes could rely on a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia.  While possibly most acceptable to Russia, it could face the same challenges relating to unilateral withdrawal as were faced by the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 

• Global Food Security Agreements with International Guarantees:  Ukraine and Russia could agree to a broader international framework for food security, wherein global stakeholders (e.g., G7, UN, major trade partners) guarantee the safe passage of grain exports as part of a larger global food security agreement.  International stakeholders could ensure that both sides adhere to the agreed terms, with global political leverage to ensure compliance.  Nonetheless, the feasibility of enforcing such a global framework depends heavily on the willingness of all parties to abide by international norms.

Rebuilding Agricultural Infrastructure

• International Funding and Technical Assistance for Infrastructure Rebuilding:  International organizations like the World Bank or EU could provide both financial aid and technical expertise to help rebuild Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure, including silos, irrigation systems, and transportation networks.  

• Debt Relief and Infrastructure Investment Programs:  Debt relief from international financial institutions could be paired with investment programs specifically aimed at reconstructing Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure, ensuring that funds are dedicated to rebuilding critical agricultural capacity.

• Provision for Russia to Pay Reparations for Agricultural Damage (via Frozen Assets or Direct Payments):  The peace agreement could include a provision requiring Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine specifically for the destruction of agricultural infrastructure during the conflict.  These reparations could be paid directly by Russia or could be drawn from frozen Russian assets held internationally, with funds earmarked for rebuilding agricultural infrastructure, providing compensation to affected farmers, and supporting the recovery of Ukraine's agricultural sector.

Protection of Agricultural Land and Resources

• Establishing Demilitarized Zones:  A peace agreement could designate key agricultural regions in Ukraine as demilitarized zones, ensuring that these areas are free from military activities and protected from further damage.  These zones could be monitored by an international body to ensure compliance and provide security guarantees for Ukrainian farmers to return to their land.

• Protection Against Expropriation or Seizure of Agricultural Land:  The agreement could include provisions ensuring that agricultural land remains in the hands of Ukrainian farmers and is not subject to expropriation or forced sales, particularly during the post-conflict recovery phase.  This could include guarantees that any land seized by military forces will be returned to its rightful owners, with appropriate compensation or restitution.

• International Demining and Remediation Efforts:  The peace agreement could include a provision for large-scale international demining efforts to remove landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXOs) from agricultural lands.