PILPG Ukraine Drafting Notes: Future of Ukraine's Armed Forces

Future of Ukraine’s Armed Forces

Given that Russia has historically sought to limit Ukraine’s military capabilities and its alignment with Western military structures, the future of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is likely to be considered during peace negotiations.  Ukraine will need to decide its strategic priorities in negotiations, including:

• Force Size and Structure:  Ukraine’s post-war Armed Forces will depend on its short- and long-term security needs, internal capacity, and international security guarantees, among other factors.  Ukraine will need to determine the optimal force size for deterrence and rapid response, while ensuring that the military remains sustainable both economically and organizationally in the long term.  A peace agreement could thus include commitments regarding the size of the armed forces and its composition. 

• Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR):  Given the significantly expanded nature of Ukraine’s Armed Forces at present, provisions for a DDR process may be included in the peace agreement.  Options may range from a comprehensive DDR reducing the overall force size and facilitating a large-scale military-to-civilian transition, to a more limited approach that selectively demobilizes certain units while integrating experienced personnel into ongoing security roles. 

Force Size and Structure 

• Large Standing Force:  Ukraine could maintain an expanded, highly mobilized military force, providing deterrence capabilities and robust defense against future aggression.  However, sustaining a large standing force would require significant economic resources and long term commitments to financial and military aid, and would likely prove highly difficult to reach consensus upon during negotiations. 

• Lean Professional Force with Reserves:  Ukraine could maintain a leaner, well-trained core military with a robust reserve force, providing a more economical model for its forces while providing a mechanism to mobilize greater force in the event of future aggression.  This approach could be modelled against Finland, which maintains a small active force with capability to mobilize over 250,000 trained reservists at speed.  This approach would require consistent training and investment in the logistics required to mobilize forces at speed.

Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR)

• Detailed Provisions versus Broad Framework:  In the event that a DDR process is included in the peace agreement, the agreement could adopt detailed provisions or a broad framework that commits to pursuing DDR at a later stage.  Detailed provisions could specify concrete benchmarks, timelines, criteria for demobilization, and reintegration measures.  A broad framework could outline an overall commitment to DDR without adopting specific processes and may include commitments to engage in subsequent detailed negotiations within a certain timeframe.

• Comprehensive DDR with Military Downsizing:  If detailed provisions regarding DDR are included within the peace agreement, these could outline a comprehensive DDR process.  This could include commitments to gradually reduce the size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces within a defined time period and in accordance with specific benchmarks, and to implement structured programs for retraining and reintegrating personnel into civilian life.  In exchange for such comprehensive military downsizing, Ukraine could seek robust international security guarantees from international allies. Ukraine could insist on maintaining the defensive capabilities of its Armed Forces, such as air defense systems, territorial defense units, and specialized military technologies (e.g. mine-clearing or anti-tank weaponry).  

• Limited DDR with Selective Demobilization:  Ukraine might agree to a gradual reduction of its military in specific units or categories of personnel, in exchange for guarantees of non-aggression from Russia.  This could involve scaling down specific groups  of combat troops, heavy weapons, and military equipment over time, but ensuring that the military maintains a sufficient deterrent force.  Alternatively, Ukraine could commit to reducing its military presence in certain conflict zones or areas close to the Russian border in exchange for mutual de-escalation.  This could involve restrictions on certain types of weaponry or military deployments near sensitive regions.  Ukraine might agree to a gradual reduction of its military in specific units or categories of personnel, in exchange for guarantees of non-aggression from Russia.  This could involve scaling down specific groups of combat troops, heavy weapons, and military equipment over time, but ensuring that the military maintains a sufficient deterrent force.  Alternatively, Ukraine could commit to reducing its military presence in certain conflict zones or areas close to the Russian border in exchange for mutual de-escalation.  This could involve restrictions on certain types of weaponry or military deployments near sensitive regions.

• Absorption of Forces into Security Structures:  The peace agreement could outline a DDR process in which personnel are integrated directly into Ukraine’s broader security sector, such as law enforcement, border control, and territorial defense units.