PILPG Ukraine Drafting Notes: Separation of Forces and Demilitarized Zones

Separation of Forces and Demilitarized Zones

The establishment of Demilitarized Zones (DMZs) and the separation of forces in post-conflict environments is a critical step in reducing hostilities and creating conditions conducive to long-term peace.  In a peace agreement, provisions relating to the establishment of a DMZ aim to reduce the likelihood of accidental clashes and ensure a sustainable ceasefire.  Several critical issues are generally considered and agreed upon during negotiations to establish a DMZ. These include: 

• Method for Force Separation:  Establishing clear mechanisms for separating opposing forces within the DMZ can help prevent clashes and build stability.  Options include buffer zones, troop withdrawals, joint security arrangements, and multi-tiered zones with varying levels of control and military restrictions.  These approaches can be tailored to the conflict environment to ensure effective enforcement and long-term security.

• Defining the Boundaries of the DMZ:  Defining the precise geographical boundaries of the DMZ, with a clear delineation of the buffer zones can reduce ambiguity, thereby reducing the likelihood of disputes and noncompliance.  Accounting for natural terrain features, infrastructure, and population centers can further help to ensure minimal disruption to civilians.

• Monitoring and Verification of the DMZ:  Independent international monitors can be established to oversee the implementation and compliance of the DMZ and deter violations.  Monitors could utilize various mechanisms for monitoring compliance, such as satellite surveillance, ground patrols, and on-the ground inspections.

• Duration and Sustainability of the DMZ:  Similar to an interim administration and peacekeeping mission, the peace agreement would typically define the DMZ’s duration.  A DMZ could be established with an initial fixed term, followed by periodic reviews to assess its effectiveness and adapt to changing conditions.  Periodic reviews can provide opportunities to reassess boundaries or rules, and ensure the arrangement remains aligned with broader peace goals.

• Humanitarian Access within the DMZ:  Agreement on provisions for unhindered humanitarian access and safe passage for civilians within the DMZ may help address the needs of local populations.  Clear guidelines for humanitarian operations can be agreed to minimize the risk of dispute between the parties and delay in the provision of vital aid to affected communities.

Method for Force Separation

Various approaches can be implemented to separate the military forces of Ukraine and Russia depending on the security situation, the level of trust between the parties, and the need for external enforcement mechanisms.

• Buffer Zone:  Establishing a demilitarized buffer zone between opposing forces to create physical separation and reduce the likelihood of direct confrontations.  This zone can be monitored by international peacekeepers, observers, or technological means such as drones and satellite surveillance.

• Withdrawal of Troops:  Requiring Ukrainian and Russian forces to withdraw to their permanent military bases.  This approach can be implemented in phases, allowing for verification at each stage to ensure compliance.  Challenges include ensuring that withdrawn forces do not reposition themselves for future offensives rather than genuine disengagement.

• Joint Security Arrangements:  Establishing a jointly controlled security zone where both parties, along with neutral observers, manage security operations.  This can include joint patrols, shared checkpoints, and coordinated enforcement of ceasefire agreements.  While fostering cooperation, joint security arrangements require significant trust between the parties and a clear framework to prevent conflicts over enforcement authority.

• Multi-Tiered Zones with Multinational Forces / Observers:  Structuring force separation into distinct zones with varying levels of control and military restrictions.  The multinational forces and observers would have access to all zones to ensure compliance.  Zones could be structured as follows: 

  • Zone A: A 10-mile-wide Russian-controlled area adjacent to the border, where only Russian border police with sidearms are permitted, and heavy military equipment is prohibited.  

  • Zone B: A 50-mile-wide multinational force area serving as a buffer zone, managed by neutral forces under an appointed general officer, with personnel allowed only defensive weapons.  

  • Zone C: A 10-mile-wide Ukrainian-controlled area bordering Zone B, where only Ukrainian border police with sidearms are allowed, and offensive weaponry is banned.

Defining the Boundaries of the DMZ

Establishing clear boundaries is essential to prevent disputes and ensure compliance. 

• Natural Features and Terrain:  Geographical landmarks such as rivers, mountain ranges, forests, or valleys can serve as natural demarcations for the DMZ. These features provide a clear and visible separation, potentially reducing ambiguity and disputes over the location of boundaries. Natural barriers may also limit physical access, contributing to the effectiveness of the DMZ.

• Surveyed and Mapped Coordinates:  Precise boundaries can be established using modern surveying techniques and geospatial technologies, including satellite imagery and GPS mapping.  This approach provides accuracy and clarity, reducing the likelihood of misinterpretation or inadvertent violations.  Detailed maps and digital records can further support monitoring and enforcement efforts.

• Provisional Boundaries with Review Clauses:  Temporary or provisional boundaries may be agreed upon initially, with provisions for periodic reviews to address evolving circumstances, such as demographic shifts or infrastructure changes.  This approach allows for adaptability and ensures that the boundaries remain relevant and effective as conditions change.

• Establishment of a Boundary Line Commission:  Ukraine and Russia may establish a Boundary Line Commission, which would be responsible for determining the concrete boundary of the DMZ.  Before the Commission has determined the boundary, Ukraine and Russia would be required to withdraw their forces a certain number of kilometers from the ceasefire line.  The amount of kilometers would be decided by the parties during negotiations. 

Monitoring and Verification

Effective monitoring mechanisms are essential to ensure adherence to DMZ provisions and detect potential violations early. 

• International Oversight:  Deploying monitors from neutral international organizations, such as the United Nations or the OSCE, to observe compliance.  These organizations can bring credibility, impartiality, and experience to the monitoring process.  However, their effectiveness may be affected by access restrictions or geopolitical considerations.

• Joint Monitoring Teams:  Establishing joint teams composed of representatives from the involved parties, supplemented by neutral third-party observers.  This approach fosters a sense of shared responsibility and mutual oversight.  However, the effectiveness of joint monitoring may depend on the level of trust and cooperation between the parties.

• Periodic Third-Party Inspections:  Arranging for periodic inspections by neutral third-party entities to verify compliance.  These inspections could be scheduled or conducted randomly to ensure transparency and deter violations.

• International Police Task Force:  Deploying an international police task force, similar to the one established under the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia, to address security issues beyond military compliance.  This force would focus on civil disturbances, organized crime, and other non-military threats in the DMZ.

• Deterrence Force:  Establishing a deterrence force rather than a traditional peacekeeping mission.  Unlike standard peacekeepers, this force would have a dual role: preventing military violations and responding to civil unrest, terrorism, and organized crime within the DMZ.

• Technological Monitoring and Drone Surveillance:  Using drone surveillance for monitoring compliance and tracking potential violations in real-time.  Ukraine could deploy drones to assist with policing functions, particularly in areas where ground patrols may be limited or ineffective.

Duration and Sustainability

Setting out processes for ending the DMZ and establishing a lasting peace is important for avoiding prolonged periods of instability.  

• Fixed Initial Term:  Setting an initial, predetermined period for the DMZ can provide a clear starting point, with the understanding that reviews will be conducted periodically.  This allows for the assessment of its effectiveness and the implementation of changes as needed.  However, a fixed term may limit flexibility and create tension if it does not align with the evolving peace process.

• Flexible Arrangements:  Allowing for adjustments to the DMZ based on developments in the peace process can help maintain its relevance and responsiveness.  This approach can promote adaptability but may also introduce challenges related to interpreting and negotiating changes, potentially leading to disagreements or delays.

• Clear Transition Criteria:  Establishing specific milestones that signal when the DMZ arrangement could be concluded or altered can help create clarity and set expectations.  While this provides a roadmap for transition, the criteria need to be precise and agreed upon by all parties to avoid disputes and ensure alignment with broader peace goals.

• Using a DMZ to Build Trust:  Instead of creating the DMZ as a result of a peace agreement, Ukraine could opt to establish the DMZ after a ceasefire.  The DMZ dissolution would thereafter happen once a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement is signed that ensures stability even without the DMZ.  The role of this DMZ is hence to create conditions for peace and build trust among parties. 

Humanitarian Access

Ensuring humanitarian access and protecting civilian interests within the DMZ is critical to fostering support and trust in the peace process.

• Safe Passage for Civilians:  Creating designated pathways for civilian movement can help reduce disruptions and allow continued access to essential services.  However, the establishment and enforcement of these routes may pose security risks if not effectively monitored.

• Humanitarian Aid Operations:  Ensuring that humanitarian organizations have unrestricted access to deliver aid requires clear, enforceable protocols.  While this promotes timely assistance, the challenge lies in managing potential disagreements or security concerns that could delay aid delivery or create conflicts between parties.